Herman Kahn

American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

Herman Kahnwas an American physicist and a founding member of the Hudson Institute, regarded as one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation.

About the Herman Kahn

Herman Kahnwas an American physicist and a founding member of the Hudson Institute, regarded as one of the preeminent futurists of the latter part of the twentieth century. He originally came to prominence as a military strategist and systems theorist while employed at the RAND Corporation. He analyzed the likely consequences of nuclear war and recommended ways to improve survivability during the Cold War. Kahn posited the idea of a “winnable” nuclear exchange in his 1960 book On Thermonuclear War for which he was one of the historical inspirations for the title character of Stanley Kubrick’s classic black comedy film satire Dr. Strangelove. In his commentary for Fail Safe, director Sidney Lumet remarked that the Professor Groeteschele character is also based on Herman Kahn.

Kahn’s theories contributed to the development of the nuclear strategy of the United States.

31 Quotes by Herman Kahn

  1. 1.

    Human and moral factors must always be considered. They must never be missing from policies and from public discussion.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  2. 2.

    Nuclear weapons are intrinsically neither moral nor immoral, though they are more prone to immoral use than most weapons.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  3. 3.

    I’m against fashionable thinking.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  4. 4.

    From a scientific perspective there is some indication that a nuclear war could deplete the earth’s ozone layer or, less likely, could bring on a new Ice Age – but there is no suggestion that either the created order or mankind would be destroyed in the process.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  5. 5.

    Hopefully, nations will refuse to accept a situation in which nuclear accidents actually do occur, and, if at all possible, they will do something to correct a system which makes them likely.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  6. 6.

    Deterrence itself is not a preeminent value; the primary values are safety and morality.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  7. 7.

    For some years I have spent my time on exactly these questions – both in thinking about ways to prevent war, and in thinking about how to fight, survive, and terminate a war, should it occur.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  8. 8.

    The widespread diffusion of nuclear weapons would make many nations able, and in some cases also create the pressure, to aggravate an on-going crisis, or even touch off a war between two other powers for purposes of their own.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  9. 9.

    My guess is that nuclear weapons will be used sometime in the next hundred years, but that their use is much more likely to be small and limited than widespread and unconstrained.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  10. 10.

    In a world which is armed to its teeth with nuclear weapons, every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  11. 11.

    Only those who are ideologically opposed to military programs think of the defense budget as the first and best place to get resources for social welfare needs.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  12. 12.

    Because of new technologies, new wealth, new conditions of domestic life and of international relations, unprecedented criteria and issues are coming up for national decision.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  13. 13.

    I am against the whole cliche of the moment.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  14. 14.

    Many people believe that the current system must inevitably end in total annihilation. They reject, sometimes very emotionally, any attempts to analyze this notion.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  15. 15.

    For if enough people were really convinced that growth should be halted, and if they acted on that conviction, then billions of others might be deprived of any realistic hope of gaining the opportunities now enjoyed by the more fortunate.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  16. 16.

    A healthy and fully functioning society must allocate its resources among a variety of competing interests, all of which are more or less valid but none of which should take precedence over national security.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  17. 17.

    In 1960 I published a book that attempted to direct attention to the possibility of a thermonuclear war, to ways of reducing the likelihood of such a war, and to methods for coping with the consequences should war occur despite our efforts to avoid it.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  18. 18.

    World War I broke out largely because of an arms race, and World War II because of the lack of an arms race.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  19. 19.

    I’m against ignorance.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  20. 20.

    A surprising number of government committees will make important decisions on fundamental matters with less attention than each individual would give to buying a suit.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  21. 21.

    A total nuclear freeze is counterproductive – especially now, when technology is rapidly changing and the Soviets have some important strategic advantages.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  22. 22.

    Nuclear war is such an emotional subject that many people see the weapons themselves as the common enemy of humanity.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  23. 23.

    Failures of perspective in decision-making can be due to aspects of the social utility paradox, but more often result from simple mistakes caused by inadequate thought.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  24. 24.

    I’m against sloppy, emotional thinking.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  25. 25.

    To the extent that these advanced weapons or their components are treated as articles of commerce, perhaps for peaceful uses as in the Plowshare program, their cost would be well within the resources available to many large private organizations.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  26. 26.

    Anything that reduces war-related destruction should not be considered altogether immoral.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  27. 27.

    Projecting a persuasive image of a desirable and practical future is extremely important to high morale, to dynamism, to consensus, and in general to help the wheels of society turn smoothly.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  28. 28.

    The objective of nuclear-weapons policy should not be solely to decrease the number of weapons in the world, but to make the world safer – which is not necessarily the same thing.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  29. 29.

    There was no race – but to the extent that there was an arms competition, it was almost entirely on the Soviet side, first to catch up and then to surpass the Americans.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  30. 30.

    It is immoral from almost any point of view to refuse to defend yourself and others from very grave and terrible threats, even as there are limits to the means that can be used in such defense.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war

  31. 31.

    New developments in weapon systems during the 1950s and early 1960s created a situation that was most dangerous, and even conducive to accidental war.

    Herman Kahn

    American futurist noted for his views on nature of thermonuclear war